Big Ten

Big Ten Player Rankings: Guards

The guard play in the Big Ten has been a bit underwhelming across the board the last couple of years. If you consider what happened to the conference in the tournament last season, the dominance at center was quickly overshadowed on the national stage by the weakness (or in some instances youth) of the backcourts. It’s not a coincidence that the last Final Four for the conference came on the back of Winston’s superb PG play, or that Michigan fell just short last season in large part because of a lack of shot creation from the guard spot. However, the guard play appears to be on the rise, in part as a result of new talent entering the conference, both from high school and the transfer portal. This year, the top ten guard list we compiled is split between young, somewhat unproven, high upside guys, and older, floor safe, steadier presences. As always, deferment in the rankings is to a certain extent provided to point guards (as the most important position on the floor) and also takes into account anticipated outcomes for the team the player is part of, meaning if two players are close in skill level/expected production, the player whose team should finish higher gets the nod. 

T10. Kobe Bufkin, Freshman 

Michigan Wolverines

Greg: In the last ten years, there have only been eight Big Ten guards that were invited to the McDonald’s All American game out of high school: Gary Harris, Yogi Ferrell, Melo Trimble, D’angelo Russell, James Blackmon Jr, Romeo Langford, Max Christie, and Kobe Bufkin.  The first six names on that list all contributed in big roles their freshman years, and five of the six entered the NBA Draft prior to playing their senior year in college.  Expectations are generally a bit lower for Bufkin in year one than his freshman counterpart Max Christie, but that’s largely due to a consensus expectation that both Eli Brooks and Devante Jones will command major minutes in the backcourt for Michigan.  However while the two veterans have clear roles to fill, Bufkin’s biggest strengths are some of Michigan’s largest needs: shot creation, and pick and roll playmaking.  

Despite the expected 25-30 MPG roles that Jones and Brooks will likely maintain, depth at the wing position behind Caleb Houstan is a question mark and Bufkin may end up forcing his way into a reasonably decent chunk of time down the last month of the regular season. He is a skilled prospect who couples a crafty handle and creative offensive package, with a smooth stroke and some vertical pop around the rim. His largest question mark is how his sleighter frame will hold up in a physical conference but he has a game that has some resemblance to D’angelo Russell in both style and physical build and could very well be the piece that raises Michigan’s ceiling from Big Ten contender to National contender.  For Michigan to get there, Bufkin would almost certainly have to rank as one of the top ten guards in the conference, his inclusion on this list is a bet that he gets there a year earlier than expected.

T10. Jaden Akins, Freshman

Michigan State Spartans

DK: We may be a year early on this pick, or maybe the coming out party happens sooner than many thought. The MSU fanbase has long heard me exclaim that the 6’3″ combo guard Jaden Akins has the potential to be one of the most exciting recruits that MSU has ever landed. Nothing I have heard coming from camp this summer has dissuaded me from holding firm to that opinion. The mix of quick twitch athleticism, vertical explosiveness, and the ability to create space to get off his rapid, lefty trigger finger, makes Akins a prime candidate to log jaw dropping moments every time he touches the floor. His willingness to defend will earn him early minutes in the rotation for the Spartans, and his ability to generate scoring opportunities for himself and others will keep him there. With limited wing depth, MSU is capable of shoring up some of their deficiencies by deploying multi-guard lineups where Akins can play on or off the ball. After a year spent refining his skillset on the national stage at Sunrise Christian, Jaden has the ability to raise MSU’s ceiling in a substantial way. The roster’s best lineup at the end of the year very well could be one where Akins is on the floor in crunch time, and it’s really a matter of when not if he forces his way into a larger role as the calendar turns to February.

9. Jordan Bohannon, 6th Year Senior

Iowa Hawkeyes

Greg-Iowa is expected to take a big step back as a team this season, but going all the way back to 2014 even Fran McCaffrey’s worst teams have usually featured one player earning All-Big Ten honors (Roy Marble, Jarrod Uthoff, Peter Jok, Jordan Bohannon, and Luka Garza have all done so).  Bohannon, the oldest player in college basketball, opted to return to the Hawkeyes for SIXTH season using his extra year of Covid-19 eligibility.  An excellent player as an underclassman before injuries ravaged his career, Bohannon made the All-Freshman conference team in his debut season and followed that up with an All-Big Ten Third Team sophomore campaign averaging 13.5 points and 5.4 assists on 43% shooting from deep at 6.8 attempts per game. 

There are more talented guards in the conference, but I’m not sure there’s a guard who will have more of a green light than Bohannon will with the departures of Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp, and CJ Fredrick. He is still a phenomenal sharpshooter capable of sniping his team to victory, and at a minimum he’s going to be one of two featured offensive players on a team that has finished top 20 in offensive efficiency four years in a row [KP]. Six to eight 3FGA per game should be expected, and if he can match his 40% career average from behind the arc he will have a great shot to lead the Hawkeye team in scoring and assists en route to a return appearance somewhere on the All-Conference team.

8. Trent Frazier, 5th Year Senior

Illinois Fighting Illini

DK: Every team needs a steady presence who is willing to do all the thankless dirty work for the team and never complain. For the Illini last year that guy was Trent Frazier. While Ayo Donsunmu, Kofi Cockburn, Andre Curbelo, and even to an extent Adam Miller got the shine last season, Frazier quietly finished third in points, third in assists, and first in steals for the conferences second best team, all while taking care of the rock and playing the role as the team’s best on ball defender. He dropped 19+ points five times last season, including a 22 point domination against Michigan at Crisler Arena. With the departures of Donsunmu to the NBA and the transfer of Miller to LSU, Frazier will be leaned on even more to provide a consistent scoring punch for the roster and offers some reasonably high reliability with upside for a team that is looking to again finish in the top 3-4 of the conference. 

7. Bryce McGowens, Freshman

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Dan: Bryce McGowens arrives at Nebraska as the Cornhuskers’ highest ranked recruit in school history. The 6’6”, five star stud (28th in the 2021 class per 247 composite) and South Carolina Gatorade Player of the Year joins his brother Trey in the backcourt, and is in prime position to become Nebraska’s go-to scorer and playmaker. Nebraska is an interesting team to monitor this season as Fred Hoiberg attempts to push the Huskers upward from the basement of the conference. Given the relative weakness of the teams that should slot 8-14 in the conference this season and the addition of a high level three tier scorer in McGowens, there is no reason that Nebraska can’t compete to be one of the best 10 teams in the conference this year.

If they are to make the jump from conference bottom dweller to competitive this year, it is in large part going to be on the shoulders of the dynamic incoming freshman. McGowens is a vertically explosive athlete whose positional size allows him to get to his spots and rise up over smaller guards both in the paint and on the perimeter. Comfortable shooting off the dribble with a smooth looking stroke, McGowens will be able to instantly put pressure on defenses at the college level. He finished his last season in high school averaging 21.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, and 1.1 BPG, and led Legacy Early College School to a USA National Prep Classic championship. While he will need to add weight to his slender frame to fully grow into his own, he should get the green light early and often for the Cornhuskers, and has a ceiling that if reached could make him one of the most exciting guards in the conference. 

6. Eric Ayala , Senior

Maryland Terrapins

Dan: Eric Ayala returns for his senior year in College Park on the heels of a breakout junior campaign where he led the team in scoring (15.1 PPG) and averaged 55% from the field. He flirted with the idea of the NBA Draft, submitting and then eventually withdrawing his name, a huge boon for the Terrapins after the departures of Aaron Wiggins (NBA draft) and Daryl Moresell (transfer to Marquette). Although Ayala is not the flashiest player on this top ten list, Maryland, who has the ability to still finish in the top half of the conference this season with their transfer additions will need to replace quite a bit of production, and Ayala is a strong candidate to pick up some of the extra slack.

At 6’5” 195 lbs Ayala’s physicality and toughness allows him to play gritty in the trenches and take advantage of smaller guards in the paint. A penchant for attacking the rim and finishing through contact in the paint (68/101, 67.3% at the rim [BT]), Ayala drew 4.3 FTA per game last season where he converted at a 83.1% clip. While his effectiveness from three point range has been average over his career (33.6% on 4.7 3FGA), he has overall proven that he can consistently provide production at the Big Ten level and should be a stabilizing force to a roster that has NCAA tournament aspirations once again.

5. Xavier Johnson, Senior

Indiana Hoosiers

DK: Indiana desperately needs to pair Trayce Jackson Davis with a guard who can both facilitate as well as get a bucket from the perimeter off the bounce. They just may have found their guy in the 6’3”, 200 lbs combo guard transfer from Pittsburgh. Xavier Johnson is a seasoned three year ACC veteran who has averaged a career 13.7 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.5 SPG, showing the ability to both table set and to get downhill to score. In a backcourt filled with nothing but question marks following Al Durham and Armaan Franklin’s transfers from the program, it feels safe to say that a lot of Indiana’s eggs this year are in the Johnson basket. The lone concern is his shooting ability (32.1% on 4.3 3FGA per game and 34.4% (11/32) on 2FG not at the rim last season [BT]), which combined with the lack of other proven shooting on the roster (outside of Northwestern transfer Miller Kopp and UT-Martin transfer Parker Stewart) could lead to some pretty packed paint for the Hoosiers this season. If Indiana is finally to shake out of their rut, finish in the top half of the conference and comfortably make the NCAA tournament this year, Johnson will need to be a large factor in the backcourt.

4. Max Christie, Freshman  

Michigan State Spartans

DK: The #1 shooting guard in the class of 2021 and the 19th overall ranked prospect per 247’s composite, Max Christie is set to make a splash in the Big Ten this year. Although he could have slotted on the forthcoming “wing” list, because he will likely handle some of the shot creation duties (both for himself and for the team) and spend much of the season at the 2 spot, I opted to include him here. I have been fervent in my belief that much of how this season goes for MSU will be dependent on Christie’s ability to become the primary scoring option down the stretch. His combination of size at 6’6”, shooting range from deep, and the fluidity with which he can get into his lethal mid range jumper off the dribble, makes him one of the most intriguing newcomers the conference will see this season. Add in the immense strides he has made in the strength/weight department over the past two years and the ample playing time available for him in the rotation, and Christie has every opportunity to show out as one of the best guards in the conference this season. Along with Caleb Houstan and Bryce McGowens he should be a frontrunning candidate for Freshman of the Year in the Big Ten, and depending on how quickly he can acclimate to the college game, could spring himself onto one of the All-Conference Teams.

3. Devante Jones, Senior

Michigan Wolverines

Greg: Devante Jones arrives in Michigan with a consistent resumé as a high-production impact player in a lower major conference where he averaged 17.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, 2.0 SPG, 48% FG, 33% 3FG, and 85% FT over three years at Coastal Carolina. The stats are enticing, but they don’t tell the full story of his on-court capabilities and growth as a player over his career.  As a freshman he immediately stepped into a 30 MPG role, averaging 14 PPG, 3APG, and 3RPG en route to being named the Sun Belt conference Freshman of the Year. As a sophomore, he led the team in assists (5.7 APG) after the team’s primary facilitator went down with a season-ending injury.  And as a junior, he averaged 19.3 PPG and 7.2 RPG, raised his three point percentage to 37% on 5.2 attempts, and was named Sun Belt Player of the Year (he also ranked second nationally in steals per game). 

While there may be questions about whether or not Devante Jones will thrive as an every-possession point guard, particularly in the heavier ball screen Michigan offense, there is little doubt that Jones’ physical traits will translate to the Big Ten. At 6’1” 200 lbs with a 6’6” wingspan, Jones has a bit of bully-ball to his game and should have no trouble getting downhill into the paint where he is at his best offensively. He also should enter the conference as one of the better on-ball defenders, and with his size and length make life extremely difficult on opposing ball handlers. Jones drew the attention of NBA scouts during the G League elite camp, where after watching him live NBA draft expert Jonathan Givony predicted that he will be a second round pick in the 2022 Draft and All Big Ten caliber player “conservatively”. While he will need to show he can impact the game at the lead guard spot at the high major level, Michigan’s use of Mike Smith last season suggests Jones is in line for an early heavy usage role on what should end up as a top team in the conference. 

2. Jaden Ivey, Sophomore

Purdue Boilermakers

Dan: It’s not hyperbole to say that Purdue’s conference title hopes and a deep run in the NCAA tournament rest in large part on the shoulders of the extremely talented but somewhat inconsistent Jaden Ivey. Purdue returns 2020-21 All-BIg Ten (1st by Coaches, 2nd by media) center Trevion Williams to help anchor the paint on both sides but there is arguably no one more important on the roster for the Boilermakers to reach their ceiling than the 6’4”, 200 lbs sophomore off guard.  Ivey appeared in 23 games as a freshman, was a starter in 12 games, and finished the last seven games of the season averaging 33.4 MPG, 17.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.7 BPG while increasing his three point percentage almost 10 percent from his season average (34.9% from 25.8%) despite taking almost two more threes a game (6.1 3FGA from 4.2 3FGA).

He followed up the close of the season with a tremendous summer where he helped to lead Team USA to gold in the U19 FIBA World Cup while averaging 12.3 PPG, 3 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 1.6 SPG. A tough, downhill scorer with the ability to finish through contact and explode at the rim, Ivey’s combination of lateral quickness and ability to get vertical in a hurry, makes him a two way nightmare. If he continues to improve his accuracy from deep he has the potential to become one of the most dangerous scorers in the conference and should be in the running for not only All-Big Ten First or Second Team honors, but perhaps springing himself as an early entrant for the NBA draft.

1. Andre Curbelo, Sophomore

Illinois Fighting Illini

Greg: Although Jaden Ivey has been the player most touted by national media as the rising sophomore star in the conference, we settled on Andre Curbelo as our number one guard heading into the Big Ten season for several reasons. For starters, Curbelo led the conference in assist rate last season (34.4%, 27th overall in the country [KP]), despite competing with the one of the best guards in the country in Ayo Dosunmu for on-ball opportunities. It’s scary to think what an offense centered around Curbelo’s vision and playmaking could look like, especially when surrounded with shooters. Kofi Cockburn’s return gives Curbelo the perfect pick and roll counterpart, and provides one of the best safety blankets and space eaters in the country. Surrounded with veteran shooters like the aforementioned Trent Frazier (36.2% on 4.9 3FGA last season), Damonte Williams (54.7% on 2.1 3FGA), and Utah transfer Alfonzo Plummer (38.3% on 6.7 3FGA), Curbelo should have space to operate, where he is at his best probing in the paint while keeping his dribble alive.

Curbelo will be given the keys to the offense this season, and in the three games where he got to showcase his ability without Dosunmu in the rotation late in conference play he averaged 14.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 3.7 APG on 51% shooting from the field, leading the Illini to three critical wins including at Wisconsin and at Michigan where he scored 17 points, snagged six rebounds, and dished out two assists in 19 minutes.  He still only averaged 25 minutes in those three games and if he comes anywhere close to the 35 MPG that Dosunmu played last season, it’s reasonable to expect that he could average 15+ points, 5 rebounds, and 6-7 assists per game next season on a top three conference team. Curbelo plays with an undeniable swagger, and as he steps into a featured role as the face of the Illini offense he earns our bet for best guard in the Big Ten next season. 

**Edited by Jonathan Singer

Big Ten Player Rankings: Guards

Get the latest news, notes and hot takes on all things Michigan State Basketball.

Copyright © 2020 Spartan Hoops

To Top